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  illow forecasts 2.8% rent inflation, 3.2% OER inflation annually in July, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. New shelter inflation numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 ET.  Key Takeaway CPI housing inflation is expected to hold near its current pace through the remainder of 2026, with rent inflation forecast to finish the year around 2.9% and OER near 3.4%. June’s rent reading showed slower growth than in the previous month, but still consistent with our elevated expectations. Shelter disinflation has effectively plateaued in the near-term. New-lease prices have been growing at their fastest pace of 2025-2026, and though they are not accelerating, this has put a damper on the declines in measured housing inflation. Current trends suggest that by year-end, the annual rate of growth will be roughly equal between new-lease rents and CPI rents. Zillow Research sees shelter costs maintaining this high...

  Key findings Black-white mortgage denial rate gaps are higher in lower-income, less-expensive housing markets. A meaningful share of the variation across markets is associated with black-white differences in applicant income and in the share of applicants carrying very high debt burdens. Black applicants are denied mortgages at higher rates than white applicants in every one of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, according to a Zillow analysis of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data . But that gap is not necessarily the largest where home prices are highest. Instead, across markets, wider denial gaps are associated with larger financial differences between Black and white applicants before they ever walk into a lender’s office. The expensive metros aren’t the worst offenders The intuitive assumption is that unaffordable markets breed the worst racial inequities. That’s not what the data show. Across the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, the Black-white mortgage denial gap is actually narrow...

  In short: A divided Federal Reserve held rates steady, but three policymakers pushed for a hike. With mortgage rates expected to fall only to 6.4% by year-end, the affordability tailwind buyers felt in the first half of 2026 may soon become a headwind. What’s next for rates? The Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, with nine voters favoring a hold and three favoring a hike — the first time three voters have dissented in the same direction since 2016. The bias of the next move is a hike.  Zillow expects mortgage rates to ease only gradually, drifting to roughly 6.4% by the end of 2026 . What’s the impact on housing?  Mortgage rates are slightly lower than a year ago, but that boost to housing activity may not last much longer. Although rates are expected to decline from today’s levels, a year-end rate of 6.4% would be slightly higher than the range buyers encountered in the fall and winter of 2025. That would erode recent affordability gains and make it ...

  In short: The latest jobs and inflation data took some pressure off mortgage rates and gave the Fed room to pause. But with Zillow forecasting mortgage rates only falling to 6.5% by year end, elevated borrowing costs are likely to slow housing activity in the second half. Softer jobs and cooling inflation give the Fed room to breathe Softer July payrolls and Consumer Price Index (CPI) both weakened the case for a Fed hike in the next meeting, pushing the market odds of a hold from slightly worse than a coin toss (45%) to about 60% in September. Payrolls fell 23,000 in July, with a downward revision of 103,000 jobs for the previous two months, leaving recent hiring weaker than previously believed. CPI inflation came in near expectations, and moderated from 3.5% year-over-year last month to 3.4% in July, which is benign enough to reduce some urgency for higher rates. The next move for the Fed is still a hike, but the report allows them space to take a breath. While geopolitical dev...

  Key findings:  Home sales rose 7% year over year in July, the strongest annual gain of the year, according to Zillow’s July Market Report. This largely represents transactions in which an offer was accepted in June.  Newly pending listings, a leading indicator of future closings, grew just 0.3% from a year ago and fell 7.7% from June. Inventory sits 1.5% above year-ago levels, helped by 3.1% annual growth of new listings, extending the 32-month streak of supply gains. Home sales surged 7% in July, the strongest annual gain seen so far this year, according to the Zillow July Market Report. But a closer look takes some air out of that headline figure. Newly pending listings are up just 0.3% year over year, suggesting July may represent the peak of what we can expect for the rest of the year.  July’s headline sales figure reflects contracts signed weeks earlier, when underlying pent-up demand for housing, combined with an improving rate environment, drove strong activ...