Colleges are about to start running out of students

 

There’s about to be fewer feet sticking to frat floors and hands slapping the bag. US colleges are facing an enrollment cliff after the population of Americans aged 18 peaked last year.

Undergraduate enrollment is projected to decline by 13% in the next 15 years, according to the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. Meanwhile, many schools are already in a pickle: Families are increasingly bargain hunting for the most generous financial aid as they doubt the value of a higher education. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has restricted international student visas, denting enrollment in the process.

College recession

Smaller, lesser-known colleges are the first to see tumbleweeds in their quads:

  • At least 10 small schools, including Hampshire College and the California College of Arts, have closed this year or plan to shutter in 2027.
  • Schools are increasingly dipping into their endowments to fill budget shortfalls, which often leads to downgrades in their credit rating. They are spending an average of 4.9% of their endowment in 2025, compared with 4.2% in 2016, per Bloomberg.

Some schools that need no introduction are also starting to feel the pinch. Syracuse University has an enrollment shortfall for this fall and a 1.5% budget deficit as international student enrollment fell by 50% last year, the Wall Street Journal reported.

But…Ivy League universities are still able to stay selective due to a high volume of applicants. Teens are also flocking to Southern state schools, lured by warm weather and relatively low tuition.—SK

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