SpaceX's first-ever earnings report comes with stock under pressure: Q2 preview

 SpaceX (SPCX) will report highly anticipated second quarter results on Tuesday after the bell — its first report as a public company — which comes as the stock has been in a free fall. 

SpaceX stock has shed nearly 30% from its $150 market debut last month and remains down roughly 50% from its all-time high of $225.64. With earnings on tap, investors will be looking for a catalyst to reignite the stock.

SpaceX stock has started the week on a higher note ahead of tonight's report, closing up on Monday and climbing higher in the pre-market.

While earnings could be a catalyst for a stock, a big overhang still looms.

"[On Tuesday afternoon] SpaceX🚀 (SPCX: NASDAQ) reports as a public company for the first time, and two days later, Aug. 6, its lockup frees hundreds of millions of insider shares — roughly triple the current tradable float," Epistrophy Capital's Cory Johnson wrote in a client note.

The lockup expiration will free up to 20% of shares for sale, and investors are worried that the added supply will keep the stock under pressure.

As for the quarter itself, SpaceX is expected to report Q2 revenue of $6.81 billion, per Bloomberg consensus, up sequentially from $4.7 billion in Q1. SpaceX is expected to post an adjusted loss per share of $0.24, with adjusted EBITDA of $2.0 billion.

Key for investors will be the company's spending, S&P Global Visible Alpha analyst Melissa Otto wrote.

"SpaceX's capex numbers are expected to increase from $48.7 billion this year to $118.4 billion in FY 2028. … In addition, SpaceX's overall debt is also projected to grow over 5x from $41.7 billion this year to over $218.0 billion in FY 2028," Otto noted.

The concern with SpaceX's large capital requirements — like those of other large AI frontier startups and even Oracle (ORCL), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and Meta (META) — is that its AI infrastructure investments will not generate a healthy return given the level of cash required.

Another part of the capital expenditures story is the company's satellite broadband service, Starlink, and what's next for the launch business with Starship. 

SpaceX is eyeing the first-ever tower catch of a Starship upper stage, using the Mechazilla arms at Starbase that have already caught the larger Super Heavy booster. "Unless we discover problems after mission data review, SpaceX will attempt to catch the ship with the tower on next flight," CEO Elon Musk posted, replying to a question on the upcoming mission, known as Flight 14

."We estimate a target window in late August or September [for Flight 14]," Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu said in a note to clients. "Separately, we note that Starlink V3 satellites can be deployed on Starship even with partial reusability [of the spacecraft]."

In addition to what's happening at SpaceX, the "Muskonomy," or the future of Musk's companies, looms. 

Musk is reportedly still pushing for a merger between SpaceX and his other major company, Tesla (TSLA). The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that executives are trying to decide how to dispose of Tesla's China business should that happen. SpaceX's government and national defense contracts could be a concern for the Chinese government.

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